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Tropical Depression Guillermo Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072021
800 AM PDT Tue Jul 20 2021
 
A small burst of convection formed around 12Z, and it's just large 
enough to hold on to Guillermo as a 30-kt tropical depression. This 
small area of convection is located in the northeastern quadrant, 
and it likely won't last long as the cyclone remains embedded in a 
very dry and stable air mass and over cool 24 C waters.  Guillermo 
should degenerate into a remnant low later today, assuming the deep 
convection dissipates.  The continued influences of dry air and cool 
waters should cause the weak system to spin down, and it should 
ultimately dissipate in a few days prior to reaching the Central 
Pacific basin.

The tropical depression is moving westward at 15 kt.  A general 
west-southwestward motion is expected during the next few days as 
Guillermo, or its remnants, remains embedded in the flow on the 
south side of a low- to mid-level ridge.  The NHC track forecast is 
just a tad to the north of the previous one and lies near the middle 
of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 19.2N 125.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 18.8N 127.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  21/1200Z 18.2N 130.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  22/0000Z 17.5N 132.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/1200Z 16.9N 135.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  23/0000Z 16.4N 138.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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