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Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062021
1100 AM HST Sun Jul 18 2021
 
The satellite presentation of Felicia has degraded since the last
advisory.  The eye is more cloud filled, and the eyewall cloud-top
temperatures have warmed.  A consensus of the T- and CI-numbers from
TAFB/SAB and the CIMSS ADT gives an initial wind speed of 105 kt, 
which is also close to a wind estimate derived from experimental 
NESDIS Synthetic Aperture Radar data a few hours ago.
 
It does seem like this is the beginning of long-heralded steady
weakening with less conducive environmental conditions ahead, such
as cooler water, higher upper-level shear, along with the loss of
the stable annular structure (as suggested by recent microwave
data).  Thus, the new intensity forecast is considerably lower than
the previous one, closest to the intensity consensus IVCN and the
NOAA corrected-consensus HCCA.  Felicia should be weakening quickly
by the time it enters the Central Pacific due to strong shear, and
the new forecast decays the cyclone to a remnant low by day 4.
 
Felicia continues moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt.  The
guidance is fairly locked into a westward turn by Monday, then a
west-southwest motion due to the orientation of the subtropical
ridge for the rest of the forecast period.  While the various aids
have changed somewhat, the latest model consensus is quite close to 
the previous NHC track forecast, so the new forecast is almost the 
same as the last one, except slightly farther north in the short 
term.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/2100Z 16.0N 129.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 16.3N 130.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 16.5N 132.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 16.3N 134.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 16.0N 137.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  21/0600Z 15.6N 140.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  21/1800Z 15.0N 142.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  22/1800Z 14.2N 148.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/1800Z 13.5N 154.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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