ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 AM HST Sun Jul 18 2021 The satellite presentation of Felicia has degraded since the last advisory. The eye is more cloud filled, and the eyewall cloud-top temperatures have warmed. A consensus of the T- and CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB and the CIMSS ADT gives an initial wind speed of 105 kt, which is also close to a wind estimate derived from experimental NESDIS Synthetic Aperture Radar data a few hours ago. It does seem like this is the beginning of long-heralded steady weakening with less conducive environmental conditions ahead, such as cooler water, higher upper-level shear, along with the loss of the stable annular structure (as suggested by recent microwave data). Thus, the new intensity forecast is considerably lower than the previous one, closest to the intensity consensus IVCN and the NOAA corrected-consensus HCCA. Felicia should be weakening quickly by the time it enters the Central Pacific due to strong shear, and the new forecast decays the cyclone to a remnant low by day 4. Felicia continues moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. The guidance is fairly locked into a westward turn by Monday, then a west-southwest motion due to the orientation of the subtropical ridge for the rest of the forecast period. While the various aids have changed somewhat, the latest model consensus is quite close to the previous NHC track forecast, so the new forecast is almost the same as the last one, except slightly farther north in the short term. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 16.0N 129.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 16.3N 130.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 16.5N 132.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 16.3N 134.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 16.0N 137.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 15.6N 140.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 15.0N 142.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 14.2N 148.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1800Z 13.5N 154.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
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