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Tropical Depression Enrique Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
900 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021
After a brief burst of convection near its center overnight, the
satellite presentation of Enrique has degraded this morning.
Infrared cloud top temperatures have rapidly warmed near the
estimated center position, and the only active convection at this
time is occurring over the Baja California Peninsula. Overnight
satellite-derived wind data supported winds of 25 to 30 kt in the
northeast quadrant of the cyclone, and satellite trends suggest
Enrique has weakened since then. Additionally, TAFB gave the system
a T2.0 subjective Dvorak classification. Therefore, the initial
intensity is lowered to 30 kt this morning, which downgrades Enrique
to a tropical depression.
Enrique is currently moving northwestward, although it is expected
to turn slightly more west-northwestward later today between a weak
ridge to its northeast and a low- to mid-level low pressure system
well offshore. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the
official NHC forecast lies close to the multi-model consensus.
Increasing vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air in the
surrounding environment, as well as increasing land interaction,
should support continued weakening during the next day or so. As
expected, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF do not
indicate much potential for additional convective development before
the system moves inland tonight. Therefore, Enrique is forecast to
become a remnant low over Baja California Sur by Thursday and
dissipate shortly thereafter.
1. Heavy rains associated with Enrique are possible across southern
portions of Baja California Sur. This will pose a threat of flash
flooding and mudslides.
2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect portions of the western
coast of Mexico and the coast of Baja California Sur during the
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 24.6N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 25.0N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 01/1200Z 25.4N 111.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND