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Tropical Depression Enrique Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
900 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021

After a brief burst of convection near its center overnight, the 
satellite presentation of Enrique has degraded this morning. 
Infrared cloud top temperatures have rapidly warmed near the 
estimated center position, and the only active convection at this 
time is occurring over the Baja California Peninsula. Overnight 
satellite-derived wind data supported winds of 25 to 30 kt in the 
northeast quadrant of the cyclone, and satellite trends suggest 
Enrique has weakened since then. Additionally, TAFB gave the system 
a T2.0 subjective Dvorak classification. Therefore, the initial 
intensity is lowered to 30 kt this morning, which downgrades Enrique 
to a tropical depression.

Enrique is currently moving northwestward, although it is expected 
to turn slightly more west-northwestward later today between a weak 
ridge to its northeast and a low- to mid-level low pressure system 
well offshore. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the 
official NHC forecast lies close to the multi-model consensus.  
Increasing vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air in the 
surrounding environment, as well as increasing land interaction, 
should support continued weakening during the next day or so. As 
expected, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF do not 
indicate much potential for additional convective development before 
the system moves inland tonight. Therefore, Enrique is forecast to 
become a remnant low over Baja California Sur by Thursday and 
dissipate shortly thereafter.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rains associated with Enrique are possible across southern 
portions of Baja California Sur.  This will pose a threat of flash 
flooding and mudslides.
 
2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect portions of the western 
coast of Mexico and the coast of Baja California Sur during the 
next day or so.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening 
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your 
local weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 24.6N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 25.0N 110.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  01/1200Z 25.4N 111.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
 
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