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Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
300 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021
Enrique has been unable to sustain deep, organized convection near
its center for over 18 hours, despite some seemingly favorable
environmental conditions (namely, warm sea-surface temperatures and
low vertical wind shear). Drier mid-level air to the west of the
system may be partly to blame, but it remains somewhat unclear why
Enrique is struggling so much. Simulated satellite imagery from the
GFS and ECMWF suggest Enrique could experience a brief flare-up of
convection this evening, as it will still be located over warm
sea-surface temperatures near the entrance to the Gulf of
California. Therefore, Enrique is maintained as a tropical cyclone
for this advisory. The initial intensity of 35 kt is supported by
several recent scatterometer passes that showed a small area of
tropical-storm-force winds in the eastern semicircle.
The cyclone is now moving northwestward, or 325/8 kt. This general
motion should continue for the next day or two as the system moves
into the Gulf of California and near or over the Baja California
Peninsula. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an update of
the previous one, and it still lies near the center of the guidance
envelope and close to the consensus aids. Without any convective
organization, Enrique is forecast to continue slowly weakening, and
it should become a tropical depression as it approaches the Baja
California Peninsula and dissipate by Thursday once it moves over
land.
Based on the latest NHC forecast, the government of Mexico has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the southern portion of
the Baja California Peninsula.
Key Messages:
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique may produce heavy rains across a
portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during
the next couple days. This rainfall over the mainland of Mexico
will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides.
2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of
Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the
southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/2100Z 23.2N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 23.9N 109.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 24.6N 110.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 25.4N 111.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 01/1800Z 26.0N 112.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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