ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
300 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021
 
Enrique has been unable to sustain deep, organized convection near 
its center for over 18 hours, despite some seemingly favorable 
environmental conditions (namely, warm sea-surface temperatures and 
low vertical wind shear). Drier mid-level air to the west of the 
system may be partly to blame, but it remains somewhat unclear why 
Enrique is struggling so much. Simulated satellite imagery from the 
GFS and ECMWF suggest Enrique could experience a brief flare-up of 
convection this evening, as it will still be located over warm 
sea-surface temperatures near the entrance to the Gulf of 
California. Therefore, Enrique is maintained as a tropical cyclone 
for this advisory. The initial intensity of 35 kt is supported by 
several recent scatterometer passes that showed a small area of 
tropical-storm-force winds in the eastern semicircle.
 
The cyclone is now moving northwestward, or 325/8 kt. This general 
motion should continue for the next day or two as the system moves 
into the Gulf of California and near or over the Baja California 
Peninsula. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an update of 
the previous one, and it still lies near the center of the guidance 
envelope and close to the consensus aids. Without any convective 
organization, Enrique is forecast to continue slowly weakening, and 
it should become a tropical depression as it approaches the Baja 
California Peninsula and dissipate by Thursday once it moves over 
land.
 
Based on the latest NHC forecast, the government of Mexico has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the southern portion of
the Baja California Peninsula.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique may produce heavy rains across a
portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during
the next couple days.  This rainfall over the mainland of Mexico
will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides.
 
2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of
Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the
southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 23.2N 108.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 23.9N 109.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 24.6N 110.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 25.4N 111.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  01/1800Z 26.0N 112.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
 
NNNN