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Tropical Depression Blanca Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
900 PM MDT Thu Jun 03 2021
Blanca is producing a few convective cells about 120 n mi to the
east-northeast of its center, but the last significant deep
convective bursts near the center stopped about 10 to 11 hours ago.
With not much convective organization, the Dvorak classification
from TAFB decreased to T1.0/2.0, and Blanca's initial intensity is
therefore lowered to 25 kt. Various analyses indicate that
west-southwesterly shear has increased to between 25-30 kt, and
the ambient environment is quite dry and subsident. In addition,
Blanca is close to reaching waters cooler than 26 degrees Celsius.
Due to these conditions, Blanca is expected to gradually spin down
over the next few days, and if deep convection does not redevelop
soon, Blanca would be declared a remnant low overnight or Friday
morning. The remnant low is then likely to dissipate in about 3
Blanca has been meandering a bit for much of the day, but the
12-hour average motion is westward (275 degrees) at 3 kt. A
low-level ridge to the north should continue steering Blanca
generally westward but a little faster during the next few days.
The updated NHC track forecast is very close to the previous
forecast and is a blend of the TVCE model consensus and the HFIP
Corrected Consensus aid.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 15.7N 114.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 15.7N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/0000Z 15.7N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/1200Z 15.8N 118.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0000Z 15.9N 120.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/1200Z 16.0N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW