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Tropical Depression Blanca Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022021
900 PM MDT Thu Jun 03 2021
 
Blanca is producing a few convective cells about 120 n mi to the 
east-northeast of its center, but the last significant deep 
convective bursts near the center stopped about 10 to 11 hours ago. 
With not much convective organization, the Dvorak classification 
from TAFB decreased to T1.0/2.0, and Blanca's initial intensity is 
therefore lowered to 25 kt.   Various analyses indicate that 
west-southwesterly shear has increased to between 25-30 kt, and 
the ambient environment is quite dry and subsident.  In addition, 
Blanca is close to reaching waters cooler than 26 degrees Celsius.  
Due to these conditions, Blanca is expected to gradually spin down 
over the next few days, and if deep convection does not redevelop 
soon, Blanca would be declared a remnant low overnight or Friday 
morning.  The remnant low is then likely to dissipate in about 3 
days.

Blanca has been meandering a bit for much of the day, but the 
12-hour average motion is westward (275 degrees) at 3 kt.  A 
low-level ridge to the north should continue steering Blanca 
generally westward but a little faster during the next few days.  
The updated NHC track forecast is very close to the previous 
forecast and is a blend of the TVCE model consensus and the HFIP 
Corrected Consensus aid.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 15.7N 114.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 15.7N 115.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  05/0000Z 15.7N 117.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1200Z 15.8N 118.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0000Z 15.9N 120.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/1200Z 16.0N 121.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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