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Tropical Depression Andres Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021
900 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021
Andres is not expected to be a tropical cyclone much longer. Earlier
today, strong west-southwesterly shear caused the thunderstorm
activity to be stripped away from the center, and now Andres is
nearly devoid of deep convection. The initial intensity is held at
30 kt based on a combination of the latest Dvorak estimates. Andres
is expected to become a remnant low by Tuesday morning due to a
combination of the continued strong shear and cooler SSTs along the
forecast track. These hostile conditions should cause the remnant
low to dissipate in a couple of days, which is shown by the GFS,
ECMWF, and UKMET global models.
After moving northwestward during the past day or two, Andres has
now turned sharply to the west due to the decoupling of the low-
and mid-level centers. A continued westward motion at about 5 kt
is expected until the cyclone dissipates. This forecast is located
to the south of the previous one due to the change in the initial
motion.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0300Z 15.9N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 16.0N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/0000Z 16.1N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/1200Z 16.1N 113.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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