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Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 8...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020
700 AM PST Thu Nov 05 2020
Corrected to say dissipated for the 72 h forecast.
Odalys appears to be losing the battle against high vertical wind
shear and dry air entrainment as an overnight convective burst has
been sheared off to the northeast. Only a small region of cloud tops
colder than -60 C remains about 100 nm away from the exposed
low-level circulation center. The latest satellite estimates from
SAB and TAFB have decreased and it is possible that Odalys has
already started weakening. However, the current intensity will be
held at 45 kt for this advisory out of respect for the overnight
ASCAT data.
The ongoing strong southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to
continue for the foreseeable future, and dry air will continue to
envelop the circulation. Marginal sea surface temperatures of 26 C
may be able to support occasional convective bursts, but these
should be short lived and disorganized, and the low-level wind field
should gradually spin down without any organized convection. The
latest intensity forecast shows Odalys becoming a remnant low by
36 h, but this may occur sooner if convection does not refire near
the center.
Odalys is gradually bending more westward at 285/6 kt as it
decouples from convection associated with the mid-level center and
begins to be influenced primarily by the low-level steering flow. A
turn due west and then west-southwest is expected over the next 24 h
following the northeasterly trade wind flow. The NHC forecast track
is similar to the previous one and is near the track guidance
consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 18.3N 122.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 18.5N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 18.2N 125.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 17.5N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1200Z 16.8N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/0000Z 16.2N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
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