ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
 
Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   8...Corrected 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202020
700 AM PST Thu Nov 05 2020

Corrected to say dissipated for the 72 h forecast.
 
Odalys appears to be losing the battle against high vertical wind 
shear and dry air entrainment as an overnight convective burst has 
been sheared off to the northeast. Only a small region of cloud tops 
colder than -60 C remains about 100 nm away from the exposed 
low-level circulation center. The latest satellite estimates from 
SAB and TAFB have decreased and it is possible that Odalys has 
already started weakening. However, the current intensity will be 
held at 45 kt for this advisory out of respect for the overnight 
ASCAT data. 
 
The ongoing strong southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to 
continue for the foreseeable future, and dry air will continue to 
envelop the circulation. Marginal sea surface temperatures of 26 C 
may be able to support occasional convective bursts, but these 
should be short lived and disorganized, and the low-level wind field 
should gradually spin down without any organized convection. The 
latest intensity forecast shows Odalys becoming a remnant low by 
36 h, but this may occur sooner if convection does not refire near 
the center.
 
Odalys is gradually bending more westward at 285/6 kt as it 
decouples from convection associated with the mid-level center and 
begins to be influenced primarily by the low-level steering flow. A 
turn due west and then west-southwest is expected over the next 24 h 
following the northeasterly trade wind flow. The NHC forecast track 
is similar to the previous one and is near the track guidance 
consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 18.3N 122.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 18.5N 124.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 18.2N 125.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 17.5N 126.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1200Z 16.8N 126.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  08/0000Z 16.2N 127.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
 
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