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Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020
100 AM PST Thu Nov 05 2020
Odalys is being blasted by about 35-40 kt of southwesterly shear,
as indicated by the UW-CIMSS shear analysis product as well
as the SHIPS guidance this morning. The deep convection has been
displaced over 60 n mi from the center throughout the overnight
period. Despite this, a recent ASCAT overpass showed numerous 40-45
kt wind vectors, with a few even higher values. Those higher values
were flagged as possibly being rain contaminated, and therefore
were discarded. However, based on the large number of 40-45 kt
values, the initial intensity has been raised to 45 kt for this
advisory.
The hostile wind shear is not forecast to abate anytime soon, and
the cyclone will be traversing over waters around 26 degrees C while
entering a drier, more stable environment over the next couple of
days. This should cause any deep convection to gradually decrease in
coverage, while being stripped away from the circulation of Odalys.
The result should be a gradual decrease of the cyclone's strength,
and Odalys could become a remnant low as early as Friday. The latest
NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one due
to the higher initial intensity, and is close to the various
consensus intensity models.
Odalys is moving west-northwestward at about 8 kt, steered by a
mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States and western
Mexico. A turn to the west, then west-southwest to southwest is
expected tonight through Friday as the cyclone becomes shallow and
steered by the low-level flow. The NHC forecast track is little
changed from the previous one and lies near the tightly clustered
track guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 18.1N 122.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 18.5N 123.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 18.5N 124.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 17.9N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0600Z 17.2N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/1800Z 16.3N 127.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0600Z 15.6N 128.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Latto
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