ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202020
100 AM PST Thu Nov 05 2020
 
Odalys is being blasted by about 35-40 kt of southwesterly shear, 
as indicated by the UW-CIMSS shear analysis product as well 
as the SHIPS guidance this morning. The deep convection has been 
displaced over 60 n mi from the center throughout the overnight 
period. Despite this, a recent ASCAT overpass showed numerous 40-45 
kt wind vectors, with a few even higher values. Those higher values 
were flagged as possibly being rain contaminated, and therefore 
were discarded. However, based on the large number of 40-45 kt 
values, the initial intensity has been raised to 45 kt for this 
advisory. 

The hostile wind shear is not forecast to abate anytime soon, and 
the cyclone will be traversing over waters around 26 degrees C while 
entering a drier, more stable environment over the next couple of 
days. This should cause any deep convection to gradually decrease in 
coverage, while being stripped away from the circulation of Odalys. 
The result should be a gradual decrease of the cyclone's strength, 
and Odalys could become a remnant low as early as Friday. The latest 
NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one due 
to the higher initial intensity, and is close to the various 
consensus intensity models. 

Odalys is moving west-northwestward at about 8 kt, steered by a 
mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States and western 
Mexico. A turn to the west, then west-southwest to southwest is 
expected tonight through Friday as the cyclone becomes shallow and 
steered by the low-level flow. The NHC forecast track is little 
changed from the previous one and lies near the tightly clustered 
track guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 18.1N 122.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 18.5N 123.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 18.5N 124.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 17.9N 126.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/0600Z 17.2N 127.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/1800Z 16.3N 127.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0600Z 15.6N 128.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
NNNN