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Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
500 PM HST Sun Oct 04 2020
Marie continues to quickly weaken, and satellite classifications
from all agencies indicate that it is now a tropical storm. A blend
of those estimates is the basis for the 55 kt initial intensity.
Marie is still producing deep convection, mainly to its northeast,
but the overall convective pattern is ragged and less organized than
it was just 6 hours ago.
Basically no change was made to the NHC track or intensity
forecasts. Marie should continue moving generally northwestward for
the next several days, and could slow and turn westward once it
becomes a shallow remnant low in a few days. Marie remains embedded
in a hostile environment, so continued weakening is inevitable.
Most dynamical models suggest it will be a remnant low within 60 h,
and based on current trends in Marie's organization, that could be
generous. There is disagreement among the models regarding how fast
the cyclone will move westward during the middle to late portion of
the week, but they all agree it will be a weak remnant low by that
time. The NHC track, intensity, and radii forecasts are heavily
based on the latest multi-model consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 20.6N 130.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 21.1N 131.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 21.7N 132.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 22.4N 134.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 22.9N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 23.3N 136.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0000Z 23.6N 137.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0000Z 23.7N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/0000Z 23.5N 141.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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