ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
500 PM HST Sun Oct 04 2020
 
Marie continues to quickly weaken, and satellite classifications 
from all agencies indicate that it is now a tropical storm. A blend 
of those estimates is the basis for the 55 kt initial intensity. 
Marie is still producing deep convection, mainly to its northeast, 
but the overall convective pattern is ragged and less organized than 
it was just 6 hours ago.
 
Basically no change was made to the NHC track or intensity 
forecasts. Marie should continue moving generally northwestward for 
the next several days, and could slow and turn westward once it 
becomes a shallow remnant low in a few days. Marie remains embedded 
in a hostile environment, so continued weakening is inevitable.  
Most dynamical models suggest it will be a remnant low within 60 h, 
and based on current trends in Marie's organization, that could be 
generous. There is disagreement among the models regarding how fast 
the cyclone will move westward during the middle to late portion of 
the week, but they all agree it will be a weak remnant low by that 
time. The NHC track, intensity, and radii forecasts are heavily 
based on the latest multi-model consensus aids.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 20.6N 130.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 21.1N 131.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 21.7N 132.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 22.4N 134.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 22.9N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  07/1200Z 23.3N 136.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0000Z 23.6N 137.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/0000Z 23.7N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/0000Z 23.5N 141.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
NNNN