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Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 PM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020
The center of Marie is now totally exposed, well to the south and
southwest of a few remaining areas of deep convection. While Marie's
convective pattern resembles a low-end tropical storm, it takes time
for systems of Marie's magnitude to spin down, and the initial
intensity of 65 kt is based on a blend of Final-T and CI Dvorak
numbers from TAFB. A pair of ASCAT passes near 18Z explicitly showed
winds near 55 kt, but it likely under sampled the peak winds of the
hurricane's tight circulation. The ASCAT also showed that Marie's
tropical-storm-force and 50-kt wind radii have not yet contracted
very much.
The position of Marie was adjusted a little to the west, and the
track forecast has been adjusted in that direction, but is
otherwise very similar to the previous advisory for the first 72 h.
After that time, the most recent guidance suggests that Marie, then
expected to be a remnant low, could turn due west, or even south of
due west. This is a pretty big departure from previous solutions,
so the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction, but not
nearly as much as the model consensus. It should be noted that
regardless of position, Marie is forecast to be a weak remnant low
at 96 and 120 h.
High shear, cool SSTs, and stable surrounding air should cause Marie
to continue to quickly weaken for the next few days. Simulated
satellite imagery suggests that the system could produce
intermittent convection for up to 60 more hours. It isn't clear how
well organized it will be, and given recent trends it is possible
Marie will become a remnant low much sooner than currently forecast.
The system will likely dissipate sometime near or just after 120 h.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 20.3N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 20.7N 130.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 21.4N 131.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 22.1N 133.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 22.7N 134.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 23.3N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 23.7N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1800Z 24.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1800Z 24.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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