ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Hurricane Marie Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
200 PM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020
 
The center of Marie is now totally exposed, well to the south and 
southwest of a few remaining areas of deep convection. While Marie's 
convective pattern resembles a low-end tropical storm, it takes time 
for systems of Marie's magnitude to spin down, and the initial 
intensity of 65 kt is based on a blend of Final-T and CI Dvorak 
numbers from TAFB. A pair of ASCAT passes near 18Z explicitly showed 
winds near 55 kt, but it likely under sampled the peak winds of the 
hurricane's tight circulation. The ASCAT also showed that Marie's 
tropical-storm-force and 50-kt wind radii have not yet contracted 
very much.

The position of Marie was adjusted a little to the west, and the 
track forecast has been adjusted in that direction, but is 
otherwise very similar to the previous advisory for the first 72 h. 
After that time, the most recent guidance suggests that Marie, then 
expected to be a remnant low, could turn due west, or even south of 
due west. This is a pretty big departure from previous solutions, 
so the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction, but not 
nearly as much as the model consensus. It should be noted that 
regardless of position, Marie is forecast to be a weak remnant low 
at 96 and 120 h.

High shear, cool SSTs, and stable surrounding air should cause Marie 
to continue to quickly weaken for the next few days. Simulated 
satellite imagery suggests that the system could produce 
intermittent convection for up to 60 more hours. It isn't clear how 
well organized it will be, and given recent trends it is possible 
Marie will become a remnant low much sooner than currently forecast. 
The system will likely dissipate sometime near or just after 120 h.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 20.3N 129.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 20.7N 130.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 21.4N 131.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 22.1N 133.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 22.7N 134.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  07/0600Z 23.3N 135.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 23.7N 136.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/1800Z 24.0N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/1800Z 24.0N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
NNNN