ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
500 PM HST Thu Sep 24 2020
Lowell is now producing a small band of deep convection in the
southeastern semicircle, but as in the previous advisory it is
otherwise largely a low-level cloud swirl. Satellite intensity
estimates have decreased a little over the past 6 h, so the initial
intensity is lowered to 35 kt. The cyclone is over cool sea
surface temperatures of 24C, and it should encounter even cooler
waters during the next day or two. Between this, increasing
westerly shear, and entrainment of stable air, Lowell should
degenerate to a remnant low between 24-36 h, if not sooner. The
global models indicate that the remnant low is likely to survive
through 120 h, and the intensity forecast follows this guidance.
The initial motion is now westward or 275/10 kt. A generally
westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected for
the next several days as Lowell or its remnants are steered by
easterly flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge. The track
guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new track forecast is
changed little from the previous forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 21.8N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 21.9N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 21.8N 131.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 21.6N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0000Z 21.5N 136.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/1200Z 21.4N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0000Z 21.4N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0000Z 21.5N 146.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z 22.5N 149.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Beven
NNNN