ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020 500 PM HST Thu Sep 24 2020 Lowell is now producing a small band of deep convection in the southeastern semicircle, but as in the previous advisory it is otherwise largely a low-level cloud swirl. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little over the past 6 h, so the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt. The cyclone is over cool sea surface temperatures of 24C, and it should encounter even cooler waters during the next day or two. Between this, increasing westerly shear, and entrainment of stable air, Lowell should degenerate to a remnant low between 24-36 h, if not sooner. The global models indicate that the remnant low is likely to survive through 120 h, and the intensity forecast follows this guidance. The initial motion is now westward or 275/10 kt. A generally westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected for the next several days as Lowell or its remnants are steered by easterly flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new track forecast is changed little from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 21.8N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 21.9N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 21.8N 131.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 21.6N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z 21.5N 136.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/1200Z 21.4N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z 21.4N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0000Z 21.5N 146.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0000Z 22.5N 149.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2020 12:11:36 UTC