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Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020
Lowell continues to be affected by north-northeasterly shear, and
the center is estimated to be located near the north-northeastern
edge of the main convective mass. Banding features are not well
defined at this time. The intensity estimate remains near 40 kt in
agreement with recent scatterometer data. The storm should move
over marginally warm waters during the next several days, with some
decrease in shear. Therefore the official forecast shows gradual
strengthening. This is somewhat above the latest intensity model
consensus.
The cyclone is estimated to be moving at around 285/11 which is
close to the climatological mean. The track forecast appears to be
quite straightforward. Lowell should move on a west-northwestward
to westward path along the southern side of a subtropical ridge for
the next several days, and the NHC track prediction lies between
the model consensus and the previous official forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 18.0N 115.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 18.6N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 19.3N 119.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 19.8N 121.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 20.1N 122.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 20.2N 124.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 20.3N 125.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 20.2N 129.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 20.3N 133.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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