ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Lowell continues to be affected by north-northeasterly shear, and the center is estimated to be located near the north-northeastern edge of the main convective mass. Banding features are not well defined at this time. The intensity estimate remains near 40 kt in agreement with recent scatterometer data. The storm should move over marginally warm waters during the next several days, with some decrease in shear. Therefore the official forecast shows gradual strengthening. This is somewhat above the latest intensity model consensus. The cyclone is estimated to be moving at around 285/11 which is close to the climatological mean. The track forecast appears to be quite straightforward. Lowell should move on a west-northwestward to westward path along the southern side of a subtropical ridge for the next several days, and the NHC track prediction lies between the model consensus and the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 18.0N 115.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 18.6N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 19.3N 119.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 19.8N 121.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 20.1N 122.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 20.2N 124.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 20.3N 125.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 20.2N 129.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 20.3N 133.6W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
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