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Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020
Deep convection with cloud tops at around -70 C has persisted over
the center of the cyclone for the past several hours. All available
Dvorak T-numbers have been on the increase, and an initial intensity
of 35 kt is supported by the latest Dvorak estimates from both SAB
and TAFB. This makes the cyclone the sixth tropical storm of the
2020 Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Fausto is crossing the 26 C
SST isotherm and is expected to reach waters cooler than 24 C by
Monday morning. Therefore it is likely that we are witnessing
Fausto's peak intensity now. With the cooler waters, the convection
should gradually decrease and the cyclone is expected to become a
remnant low in about 2 days. The intensity forecast is similar to
the previous one, and is in good agreement with the intensity
consensus aids.
Fausto has increased its forward speed a bit and is now moving
northwestward at around 13 kt. A slightly faster forward speed and
a gradual turn to the west-northwest is expected through tonight
along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. As the
cyclone loses its convection, it should turn westward or just south
of westward as it becomes steered by the low-level flow. The
official forecast lies in the middle of tightly clustered guidance
and is little changed from the previous one.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 20.7N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 22.3N 121.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 23.6N 124.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 24.1N 127.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 24.0N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/0000Z 23.6N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z 22.9N 133.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Latto
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