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Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112020
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020
 
Deep convection with cloud tops at around -70 C has persisted over 
the center of the cyclone for the past several hours. All available 
Dvorak T-numbers have been on the increase, and an initial intensity 
of 35 kt is supported by the latest Dvorak estimates from both SAB 
and TAFB. This makes the cyclone the sixth tropical storm of the 
2020 Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Fausto is crossing the 26 C 
SST isotherm and is expected to reach waters cooler than 24 C by 
Monday morning. Therefore it is likely that we are witnessing 
Fausto's peak intensity now. With the cooler waters, the convection 
should gradually decrease and the cyclone is expected to become a 
remnant low in about 2 days. The intensity forecast is similar to 
the previous one, and is in good agreement with the intensity 
consensus aids.
 
Fausto has increased its forward speed a bit and is now moving 
northwestward at around 13 kt. A slightly faster forward speed and 
a gradual turn to the west-northwest is expected through tonight  
along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. As the 
cyclone loses its convection, it should turn westward or just south 
of westward as it becomes steered by the low-level flow. The 
official forecast lies in the middle of tightly clustered guidance 
and is little changed from the previous one. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 20.7N 119.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 22.3N 121.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 23.6N 124.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 24.1N 127.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 24.0N 129.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  19/0000Z 23.6N 131.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1200Z 22.9N 133.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
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Forecaster Latto
 
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