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Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 30
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 27 2020
Douglas is experiencing noticeable wind shear this morning, with
deep convection limited to the northeast quadrant of the
circulation. Satellite presentation continues to erode, with the
low level circulation center just inside the southwest edge of this
deep convection, leaving the rest of the circulation exposed.
Initial six hour motion is 270/17 kt, reflecting either a 12Z
motion which was too slow or stronger low level steering as this
system decouples. This motion is slightly left of the previous
forecast track and was incorporated into the reasoning for the
current track.
Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from all the
national centers are 4.0/65 knots, while UW-CIMSS ADT is 61 knots.
Given these estimates and the gradual deterioration in satellite
presentation overnight, initial intensity is set at 70 kt, a
decrease in 10 kt from the last package.
Douglas continues to be steered by a deep ridge to its north and
the expectation is for this system to continue on a west to west
northwest track through the remainder of its life. With 20 to 25 kt
of shear forecast through 48 hours, significant weakening is also
expected. The updated track forecast is slightly to the left of the
previous one, given short term motion. This is still within the
northern portion of the guidance envelope, closest to the HCCA
consensus track. Like last time, the intensity forecast leans
heavily on the dynamical models, anticipating a fairly rapid rate
of weakening.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 23.0N 162.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 23.1N 165.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 23.5N 169.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 23.8N 173.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 24.3N 176.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 24.9N 179.3E 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 25.2N 175.3E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Powell
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