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Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number  30
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP082020
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 27 2020
 
Douglas is experiencing noticeable wind shear this morning, with 
deep convection limited to the northeast quadrant of the 
circulation. Satellite presentation continues to erode, with the 
low level circulation center just inside the southwest edge of this 
deep convection, leaving the rest of the circulation exposed. 
Initial six hour motion is 270/17 kt, reflecting either a 12Z 
motion which was too slow or stronger low level steering as this 
system decouples. This motion is slightly left of the previous 
forecast track and was incorporated into the reasoning for the 
current track.

Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from all the 
national centers are 4.0/65 knots, while UW-CIMSS ADT is 61 knots. 
Given these estimates and the gradual deterioration in satellite 
presentation overnight, initial intensity is set at 70 kt, a 
decrease in 10 kt from the last package.

Douglas continues to be steered by a deep ridge to its north and 
the expectation is for this system to continue on a west to west 
northwest track through the remainder of its life. With 20 to 25 kt 
of shear forecast through 48 hours, significant weakening is also 
expected. The updated track forecast is slightly to the left of the 
previous one, given short term motion. This is still within the 
northern portion of the guidance envelope, closest to the HCCA 
consensus track. Like last time, the intensity forecast leans 
heavily on the dynamical models, anticipating a fairly rapid rate 
of weakening. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 23.0N 162.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 23.1N 165.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 23.5N 169.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 23.8N 173.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 24.3N 176.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  30/0600Z 24.9N 179.3E   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 25.2N 175.3E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Powell
 
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