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Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072020
200 AM PDT Tue Jul 21 2020
The cyclone is now devoid of all deep convection. If deep convection
does not redevelop soon, it will become a remnant low early Tuesday.
The system is moving over 24 to 25 deg C waters, thus long-term
redevelopment of organized deep convection is not anticipated.
The cyclone has turned toward the west, and a general westward
motion is expected for the next day or so as the shallow low is
steered primarily by low-level easterly flow. A pair of ASCAT passes
near 06Z surprisingly showed winds of 30-35 kt, but given the lack
of convection, it seems reasonable to assume that the winds have
decreased a little since that time so the initial intensity is set
at 30 kt. The low should gradually spin down over the course of the
next day or so until it dissipates. No changes of significance were
made to the previous NHC track or intensity forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0900Z 19.3N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 19.2N 134.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/0600Z 18.7N 137.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/1800Z 17.7N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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