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Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072020
500 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020
All that remains of the deep convection associated with the
depression is a small shapeless patch of clouds sheared about
70 miles to the west of the poorly defined surface circulation.
Barely enough to classify it as a tropical depression by TAFB and
SAB. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days as the
cyclone continues to move over oceanic temperatures of less than
25C and also ingests more stable, cold-air stratocumulus clouds
intruding from the north. Degeneration into a remnant low
pressure is forecast Tuesday morning, with dissipation expected in
a couple of days.
The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward or, 290/10
kt. A westward and west-southwestward motion is expected during
the next day or so, within the tradewind flow, while the remnant
low is steered by the building low to mid-level ridge to the north.
The NHC forecast is hedged toward the HFIP HCCA consensus and is
slightly to the left of the previous forecast. The track
adjustment is primarily due to the fact that the FV3/GFS has also
shifted to the left, and is now closer to the consistent ECMWF
solution.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 19.2N 131.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 19.4N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/0000Z 19.1N 135.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/1200Z 18.2N 138.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/0000Z 17.5N 141.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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