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Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072020
500 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020
 
All that remains of the deep convection associated with the 
depression is a small shapeless patch of clouds sheared about 
70 miles to the west of the poorly defined surface circulation. 
Barely enough to classify it as a tropical depression by TAFB and 
SAB.  Weakening is expected during the next couple of days as the 
cyclone continues to move over oceanic temperatures of less than 
25C and also ingests more stable, cold-air stratocumulus clouds 
intruding from the north.  Degeneration into a remnant low 
pressure is forecast Tuesday morning, with dissipation expected in 
a couple of days.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward or, 290/10 
kt.  A westward and west-southwestward motion is expected during 
the next day or so, within the tradewind flow, while the remnant 
low is steered by the building low to mid-level ridge to the north.
The NHC forecast is hedged toward the HFIP HCCA consensus and is 
slightly to the left of the previous forecast.  The track 
adjustment is primarily due to the fact that the FV3/GFS has also 
shifted to the left, and is now closer to the consistent ECMWF 
solution. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0300Z 19.2N 131.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 19.4N 133.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  22/0000Z 19.1N 135.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  22/1200Z 18.2N 138.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/0000Z 17.5N 141.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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