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Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072020
500 AM HST Mon Jul 20 2020
Even with its center now over 25 degrees Celsius water, the
depression continues to produce a small area of deep convection
which is asymmetrically favoring the southwestern semicircle of the
circulation. With Dvorak Current Intensity numbers of 2.0/30 kt
from TAFB and SAB, and no appreciable change in the overall
convective structure, the initial intensity remains 30 kt.
Thermodynamics are expected to be the primary limiting factor on
the depression's intensity, as sea surface temperatures along the
system's path continue to drop and the atmosphere becomes drier and
more stable. As such, the depression is expected to lose organized
deep convection, weaken, and degenerate into a remnant low in about
24 hours. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate in about 3
days, if not sooner, based on the latest global model guidance.
The updated NHC intensity forecast is largely unchanged from the
previous advisory.
The depression is located along the southwestern edge of a
mid-tropospheric high centered west of the Baja California
peninsula, and to the southeast of a large mid-/upper-level low
centered northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. The resultant flow
around these features is imparting a northwestward motion on the
depression at around 11 kt. With the depression expected to weaken
over the next few days, it should become increasingly steered by
lower-level winds, causing it to turn west-northwestward and then
westward before it dissipates. The official track forecast lies
close to HCCA and the other multi-model consensus aids, and it has
been shifted slightly north of the previous forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 18.7N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 19.4N 131.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 19.7N 133.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0000Z 19.3N 136.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1200Z 18.4N 138.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/0000Z 17.3N 141.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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