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Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072020
500 AM HST Mon Jul 20 2020
 
Even with its center now over 25 degrees Celsius water, the 
depression continues to produce a small area of deep convection 
which is asymmetrically favoring the southwestern semicircle of the 
circulation.  With Dvorak Current Intensity numbers of 2.0/30 kt 
from TAFB and SAB, and no appreciable change in the overall 
convective structure, the initial intensity remains 30 kt.  
Thermodynamics are expected to be the primary limiting factor on 
the depression's intensity, as sea surface temperatures along the 
system's path continue to drop and the atmosphere becomes drier and 
more stable.  As such, the depression is expected to lose organized 
deep convection, weaken, and degenerate into a remnant low in about 
24 hours.  The remnant low is forecast to dissipate in about 3 
days, if not sooner, based on the latest global model guidance.  
The updated NHC intensity forecast is largely unchanged from the 
previous advisory.

The depression is located along the southwestern edge of a 
mid-tropospheric high centered west of the Baja California 
peninsula, and to the southeast of a large mid-/upper-level low 
centered northeast of the Hawaiian Islands.  The resultant flow 
around these features is imparting a northwestward motion on the 
depression at around 11 kt.  With the depression expected to weaken 
over the next few days, it should become increasingly steered by 
lower-level winds, causing it to turn west-northwestward and then 
westward before it dissipates.  The official track forecast lies 
close to HCCA and the other multi-model consensus aids, and it has 
been shifted slightly north of the previous forecast.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 18.7N 130.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 19.4N 131.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 19.7N 133.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  22/0000Z 19.3N 136.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/1200Z 18.4N 138.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  23/0000Z 17.3N 141.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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