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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
300 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020
Although deep convection has been increasing tonight in association
with Cristina, the overall cloud pattern and structure of the storm
has changed little and it continues to lack banding features. The
satellite intensity estimates range from 45 to 60 kt, and a recent
ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of around 40 kt. Based on these
data, the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 55 kt.
Cristina has not strengthened as much as anticipated. However, the
storm still has about another 36 hours in favorable environmental
conditions of wind shear of 10 kt or less, mid-level humidities
between 75 and 80 percent, and SSTs of 26 C or warmer. During that
period it still seems likely that Cristina will strengthen and it
could become a hurricane. After 36 hours, Cristina is expected to
move over much cooler waters and into a notably drier and more
stable air mass. These conditions should promote a steady weakening
trend, and Cristina will likely become a remnant low in 4 or 5
days. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the
previous one and in good agreement with the IVCN consensus model.
The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. A mid-level
ridge located over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen
in place, and that should cause Cristina to move a little faster to
the west-northwest during the next few days. After that time, the
weaker and likely vertically shallow storm should turn toward the
west in the low-level trade wind flow. The model tracks remain
tightly packed, and the new NHC track forecast is largely an update
of the previous one.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 16.8N 109.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 17.6N 110.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 18.6N 112.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 19.6N 115.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 20.3N 118.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 20.9N 121.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 21.1N 124.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 21.2N 129.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 21.4N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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