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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
300 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020
 
Although deep convection has been increasing tonight in association
with Cristina, the overall cloud pattern and structure of the storm
has changed little and it continues to lack banding features.  The
satellite intensity estimates range from 45 to 60 kt, and a recent
ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of around 40 kt.  Based on these
data, the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 55 kt.
 
Cristina has not strengthened as much as anticipated.  However, the
storm still has about another 36 hours in favorable environmental
conditions of wind shear of 10 kt or less, mid-level humidities
between 75 and 80 percent, and SSTs of 26 C or warmer.  During that
period it still seems likely that Cristina will strengthen and it
could become a hurricane.  After 36 hours, Cristina is expected to
move over much cooler waters and into a notably drier and more
stable air mass.  These conditions should promote a steady weakening
trend, and Cristina will likely become a remnant low in 4 or 5
days.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the
previous one and in good agreement with the IVCN consensus model.

The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt.  A mid-level 
ridge located over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen 
in place, and that should cause Cristina to move a little faster to 
the west-northwest during the next few days.  After that time, the 
weaker and likely vertically shallow storm should turn toward the 
west in the low-level trade wind flow.  The model tracks remain 
tightly packed, and the new NHC track forecast is largely an update 
of the previous one.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0900Z 16.8N 109.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 17.6N 110.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 18.6N 112.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 19.6N 115.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 20.3N 118.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  11/1800Z 20.9N 121.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 21.1N 124.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 21.2N 129.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 21.4N 135.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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