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Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019
Mario continues to be a fully exposed swirl of low clouds devoid of
convection, and is close to becoming a remnant low. The initial
intensity is reduced to 30 kt based on ASCAT data. With no models
showing any significant re-development of deep convection, slow
weakening is forecast, and the cyclone should decay into a remnant
low later today. The new intensity forecast is basically an update
of the previous one, adjusted for lower initial winds.
Mario is now moving a little faster with an initial motion of 335/8
kt. The track guidance is in good agreement on a north-
northwestward at a slower pace through 48 hours. The new forecast
track is very close to the previous one and the latest consensus
aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 21.0N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 22.0N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/0600Z 23.4N 113.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/1800Z 24.7N 113.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0600Z 25.9N 113.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart/Blake
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