ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Mario continues to be a fully exposed swirl of low clouds devoid of convection, and is close to becoming a remnant low. The initial intensity is reduced to 30 kt based on ASCAT data. With no models showing any significant re-development of deep convection, slow weakening is forecast, and the cyclone should decay into a remnant low later today. The new intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one, adjusted for lower initial winds. Mario is now moving a little faster with an initial motion of 335/8 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement on a north- northwestward at a slower pace through 48 hours. The new forecast track is very close to the previous one and the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 21.0N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 22.0N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/0600Z 23.4N 113.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/1800Z 24.7N 113.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0600Z 25.9N 113.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart/Blake NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Dec-2019 12:10:08 UTC