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Tropical Depression Erick Discussion Number  33
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062019
500 AM HST Sun Aug 04 2019
 
Deep convection has again developed over Erick's low-level
circulation center (LLCC) early this morning. This not only makes
finding the latest position of the LLCC problematic, it makes
diagnosing the current intensity somewhat uncertain. The westerly
wind shear continues in the 40-50 kt range according to the latest
SHIPS and CIMSS estimates, which is creating hostile environmental
conditions over the depression. However, this is also likely
allowing the thunderstorms to periodically flare up in the vicinity
of the tropical cyclone. The most recent Dvorak intensity estimates
from the satellite fix agencies were 2.0/30 kt from PHFO and SAB,
and 1.5/25 kt from JTWC. The CIMSS ADT estimate was 2.3/33 kt. Last
evening, a 0747Z ASCAT pass showed a large swath of 30 kt winds in
Erick's northeast quadrant. Therefore, we are keeping the
depression's initial intensity at 30 kt for this advisory.
 
The initial forward motion for this advisory has apparently slowed
during the past 6-12 hours, and it is now 290/10 kt. The LLCC is
primarily being steered by the low-level flow, which is dominated by
a large subtropical ridge far north of Erick. Note that if there
are additional episodes of deep convection developing near the LLCC,
there may be slight deviations in the forward motion toward the
west-northwest. However, we have kept the track forecast very
close to the previous advisory through 24 hours, followed by a
slight shift to the left at a slower forward speed in 36 hours.
 
The strong vertical wind shear over Erick will not decrease during
the next few days. Therefore, we do not anticipate any significant
intensification of the system. The latest intensity forecast is the
same as the previous package. Erick is expected to remain a tropical
depression today, then become a post-tropical remnant low by
tonight, before dissipation on Monday.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/1500Z 18.5N 167.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 19.1N 168.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 19.7N 169.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/0000Z 20.0N 171.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Houston
 
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