ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Depression Erick Discussion Number 33 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP062019 500 AM HST Sun Aug 04 2019 Deep convection has again developed over Erick's low-level circulation center (LLCC) early this morning. This not only makes finding the latest position of the LLCC problematic, it makes diagnosing the current intensity somewhat uncertain. The westerly wind shear continues in the 40-50 kt range according to the latest SHIPS and CIMSS estimates, which is creating hostile environmental conditions over the depression. However, this is also likely allowing the thunderstorms to periodically flare up in the vicinity of the tropical cyclone. The most recent Dvorak intensity estimates from the satellite fix agencies were 2.0/30 kt from PHFO and SAB, and 1.5/25 kt from JTWC. The CIMSS ADT estimate was 2.3/33 kt. Last evening, a 0747Z ASCAT pass showed a large swath of 30 kt winds in Erick's northeast quadrant. Therefore, we are keeping the depression's initial intensity at 30 kt for this advisory. The initial forward motion for this advisory has apparently slowed during the past 6-12 hours, and it is now 290/10 kt. The LLCC is primarily being steered by the low-level flow, which is dominated by a large subtropical ridge far north of Erick. Note that if there are additional episodes of deep convection developing near the LLCC, there may be slight deviations in the forward motion toward the west-northwest. However, we have kept the track forecast very close to the previous advisory through 24 hours, followed by a slight shift to the left at a slower forward speed in 36 hours. The strong vertical wind shear over Erick will not decrease during the next few days. Therefore, we do not anticipate any significant intensification of the system. The latest intensity forecast is the same as the previous package. Erick is expected to remain a tropical depression today, then become a post-tropical remnant low by tonight, before dissipation on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 18.5N 167.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 19.1N 168.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 19.7N 169.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0000Z 20.0N 171.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Houston NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Dec-2019 12:09:50 UTC