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Tropical Depression Erick Discussion Number  32
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062019
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 03 2019
 
The low level circulation center (LLCC) is once again exposed
late this evening after being partially obscured by a burst of 
deep convection for several hours. This deep convection was likely
induced due to the very strong winds aloft over Erick. However,
these winds are continuing to create hostile environmental
conditions for the depression, since the westerly shear is 40 to
50 kt according to latest SHIPS and CIMSS estimates. Dvorak
intensity estimates from the satellite fix agencies were 2.0/30 kt
from PHFO, and 1.5/25 kt from SAB and JTWC. The most recent CIMSS
ADT estimate was 2.3/33 kt. A 0747Z ASCAT pass showed a large swath
of 30 kt or greater winds in the northeast quadrant of a well
defined circulation. As a result, we have kept Erick's initial
intensity at 30 kt for this advisory. 

The initial motion for this advisory remains 290/12 kt. The LLCC is
primarily being steered by the low level flow, which is dominated by
a large subtropical ridge far north of Erick. There is a possibility
that additional episodes of deep convection may develop near the
center, which may cause slight deviations in the west-northwestward
motion. However, we have kept the forecast track similar to the
previous forecast package.
 
The strong vertical wind shear over Erick will not decrease during
the next few days. Therefore, we do not see any chance for
intensification of the system. The latest intensity forecast is
the same as the previous package. Erick is expected to remain a
tropical depression through early Sunday, then become a
post-tropical remnant low late Sunday, before dissipation on
Monday.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 18.2N 166.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 19.0N 167.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 19.7N 169.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1800Z 20.4N 170.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Houston
 
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