ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
 
Tropical Depression Erick Discussion Number  31
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062019
500 PM HST Sat Aug 03 2019
 
Erick has not developed significant deep convection near its center
all day. The main area of deep convection associated with Erick's
circulation was confined to an outer rain band in the northern
quadrant. Vertical shear also remains strong, with the UW/CIMSS
analysis showing 47 KT from the west at 04/0000 UTC. Dvorak
intensity estimates from all the fix agencies came in at 2.0/30 KT.
An ASCAT-C pass at 03/2005 UTC showed 25 to 30 KT winds in the
northeast quadrant of the circulation. Based on these data, the
initial intensity for Erick has been lowered to 30 KT, making it a
tropical depression.

There has been no change to the previous forecast regarding
intensity trends. The strong vertical shear over Erick will not ease
any time soon, and this should help prevent any restrengthening of
the cyclone. Erick is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low
tonight or Sunday, then dissipate on Monday.

The initial motion for this advisory is 290/12 KT. This motion has a
slightly higher northward component from the previous advisory, but
this was anticipated by the model guidance. Erick should continue to
move toward the west-northwest while riding the lower level steering
flow through the post-tropical cyclone phase on Sunday and to
dissipation on Monday. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 17.9N 165.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 18.6N 166.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 19.4N 168.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1200Z 20.0N 169.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kodama
 
NNNN