ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Depression Erick Discussion Number 31 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP062019 500 PM HST Sat Aug 03 2019 Erick has not developed significant deep convection near its center all day. The main area of deep convection associated with Erick's circulation was confined to an outer rain band in the northern quadrant. Vertical shear also remains strong, with the UW/CIMSS analysis showing 47 KT from the west at 04/0000 UTC. Dvorak intensity estimates from all the fix agencies came in at 2.0/30 KT. An ASCAT-C pass at 03/2005 UTC showed 25 to 30 KT winds in the northeast quadrant of the circulation. Based on these data, the initial intensity for Erick has been lowered to 30 KT, making it a tropical depression. There has been no change to the previous forecast regarding intensity trends. The strong vertical shear over Erick will not ease any time soon, and this should help prevent any restrengthening of the cyclone. Erick is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low tonight or Sunday, then dissipate on Monday. The initial motion for this advisory is 290/12 KT. This motion has a slightly higher northward component from the previous advisory, but this was anticipated by the model guidance. Erick should continue to move toward the west-northwest while riding the lower level steering flow through the post-tropical cyclone phase on Sunday and to dissipation on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 17.9N 165.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 18.6N 166.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 19.4N 168.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1200Z 20.0N 169.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kodama NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Dec-2019 12:09:50 UTC