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Hurricane Erick Discussion Number  16
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062019
1100 PM HST Tue Jul 30 2019
 
Hurricane Erick now appears less impressive on satellite imagery.
The eye has become colder and less distinct and the area of coldest
cloud tops over the center has shrunk and became less symmetrical.
Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates were 6.0/115 kt from
SAB and JTWC and 5.5/102 kt from PHFO, while ADT is 5.6. The initial
intensity estimate for this advisory has been decreased slightly to
110 kt. Erick is now a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Erick has tracked slightly north of west and
slowed slightly. The initial motion estimate for this advisory is
280/10 kt.

There has been little change in the philosophy for the forecast
track or intensity. Guidance remains consistent showing Erick
moving tracking slightly north of west for the next 48 hours as it
moves along south of a strong subtropical ridge, then gradually
turning towards the northwest. That track will take Erick over
slightly cooler water and into an area of stronger vertical wind
shear associated with a persistent trough aloft. That environment
is expected to produce steady weakening.
 
A recent ASCAT pass right over Eric was used to adjust the 34 kt
wind radii.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/0900Z 14.2N 146.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 14.6N 147.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 15.2N 150.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 15.8N 152.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 16.3N 155.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 17.4N 159.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 18.9N 163.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 20.5N 166.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Donaldson
 
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