ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Hurricane Erick Discussion Number 16 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP062019 1100 PM HST Tue Jul 30 2019 Hurricane Erick now appears less impressive on satellite imagery. The eye has become colder and less distinct and the area of coldest cloud tops over the center has shrunk and became less symmetrical. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates were 6.0/115 kt from SAB and JTWC and 5.5/102 kt from PHFO, while ADT is 5.6. The initial intensity estimate for this advisory has been decreased slightly to 110 kt. Erick is now a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Erick has tracked slightly north of west and slowed slightly. The initial motion estimate for this advisory is 280/10 kt. There has been little change in the philosophy for the forecast track or intensity. Guidance remains consistent showing Erick moving tracking slightly north of west for the next 48 hours as it moves along south of a strong subtropical ridge, then gradually turning towards the northwest. That track will take Erick over slightly cooler water and into an area of stronger vertical wind shear associated with a persistent trough aloft. That environment is expected to produce steady weakening. A recent ASCAT pass right over Eric was used to adjust the 34 kt wind radii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 14.2N 146.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 14.6N 147.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 15.2N 150.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 15.8N 152.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 16.3N 155.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 17.4N 159.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 18.9N 163.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 20.5N 166.3W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Donaldson NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Dec-2019 12:09:49 UTC