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Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012019
800 PM PDT Fri Jun 28 2019

Alvin has very little, if any, remaining deep convection, as strong
shear and a cooler ocean have been taking their toll.  The
current intensity estimate is a somewhat uncertain 35 kt, which
assumes a steady weakening since the last scatterometer-based
estimate.  Since the environment should remain hostile, Alvin is
likely to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday.

The motion continues northwestward at a slower forward speed, or
310/11 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the north and northeast of the
cyclone should steer the system northwestward during the early part
of the forecast period.  Afterwards, the weakening and increasingly
shallow cyclone is expected to turn westward following the
low-level flow.  The official track forecast is similar to the
dynamical model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 20.1N 119.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 20.8N 120.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 21.1N 121.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/1200Z 21.3N 123.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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