ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 800 PM PDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Alvin has very little, if any, remaining deep convection, as strong shear and a cooler ocean have been taking their toll. The current intensity estimate is a somewhat uncertain 35 kt, which assumes a steady weakening since the last scatterometer-based estimate. Since the environment should remain hostile, Alvin is likely to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday. The motion continues northwestward at a slower forward speed, or 310/11 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north and northeast of the cyclone should steer the system northwestward during the early part of the forecast period. Afterwards, the weakening and increasingly shallow cyclone is expected to turn westward following the low-level flow. The official track forecast is similar to the dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 20.1N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 20.8N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 21.1N 121.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1200Z 21.3N 123.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
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