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Tropical Depression Paul Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018

Paul does not have much time left as a tropical cyclone.  The
low-cloud center is displaced to the west of a diminishing area of
deep convection.  The intensity is held at 30 kt at this time, in
agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB.  Since the
cyclone will soon be moving over SSTs below 24 deg C, the system
will likely lose its remaining deep convection and degenerate into
a remnant low in 24 hours, or sooner.

The initial motion is west-northwest or 285/9 kt.  As the cyclone
becomes increasingly shallow, it should turn toward the west and
eventually west-southwest following the low-level tradewind flow.
The NHC track forecast is close to the HCCA corrected consensus
prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 22.3N 125.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 22.6N 126.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 22.8N 128.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  13/0600Z 23.0N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/1800Z 23.0N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/1800Z 22.5N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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