ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Paul Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018 Paul does not have much time left as a tropical cyclone. The low-cloud center is displaced to the west of a diminishing area of deep convection. The intensity is held at 30 kt at this time, in agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB. Since the cyclone will soon be moving over SSTs below 24 deg C, the system will likely lose its remaining deep convection and degenerate into a remnant low in 24 hours, or sooner. The initial motion is west-northwest or 285/9 kt. As the cyclone becomes increasingly shallow, it should turn toward the west and eventually west-southwest following the low-level tradewind flow. The NHC track forecast is close to the HCCA corrected consensus prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 22.3N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 22.6N 126.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 22.8N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/0600Z 23.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/1800Z 23.0N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1800Z 22.5N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
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