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Tropical Depression Lane Discussion Number  51
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
500 PM HST Sun Aug 26 2018
 
The low-level circulation center of Lane remains exposed with
continued bursts of deep convection pulsing in the northeast
quadrant. Recent satellite imagery also shows some deep convection
developing south and southwest of the circulation center. Lane
remains in a hostile environment with UW-CIMSS vertical shear
estimate of 47 knots impacting the system. With the continued deep
convection persisting near the center of circulation as well as the
latest Dvorak intensity estimates, the initial intensity for this
advisory remains at 30 kt. An ASCAT pass at around 20Z detected wind
speeds of 32 knots in the northwest quadrant of the system. 
 
The initial motion for this advisory is 255/8 kt. A surface high to
the distant northeast will keep Lane moving generally toward the
west into Monday as it devolves into a post-tropical remnant low
later tonight or Monday. Once Lane becomes post-tropical,
redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is highly unlikely. A brief
slowing in forward speed is expected late Monday and Monday night as
the remnant low reaches the southwestern edge of the high and begins
to interact with a developing mid-level low to its west. Assuming
Lane survives as a coherent feature until then, this interaction is
expected to lead to the development of an extratropical low by
Tuesday or Wednesday. This low could bring gale force winds to
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument as it
tracks north and northwest around the middle of the week. The latest
official forecast track is close to the TVCN consensus model while
the intensity forecast is supported by global model guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0300Z 18.8N 163.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 18.6N 164.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 18.8N 166.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/1200Z 19.5N 166.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/0000Z 21.2N 167.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/0000Z 25.9N 170.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  31/0000Z 30.9N 174.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/0000Z 34.3N 179.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Burke
 
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