ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Depression Lane Discussion Number 51 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018 500 PM HST Sun Aug 26 2018 The low-level circulation center of Lane remains exposed with continued bursts of deep convection pulsing in the northeast quadrant. Recent satellite imagery also shows some deep convection developing south and southwest of the circulation center. Lane remains in a hostile environment with UW-CIMSS vertical shear estimate of 47 knots impacting the system. With the continued deep convection persisting near the center of circulation as well as the latest Dvorak intensity estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory remains at 30 kt. An ASCAT pass at around 20Z detected wind speeds of 32 knots in the northwest quadrant of the system. The initial motion for this advisory is 255/8 kt. A surface high to the distant northeast will keep Lane moving generally toward the west into Monday as it devolves into a post-tropical remnant low later tonight or Monday. Once Lane becomes post-tropical, redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is highly unlikely. A brief slowing in forward speed is expected late Monday and Monday night as the remnant low reaches the southwestern edge of the high and begins to interact with a developing mid-level low to its west. Assuming Lane survives as a coherent feature until then, this interaction is expected to lead to the development of an extratropical low by Tuesday or Wednesday. This low could bring gale force winds to portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument as it tracks north and northwest around the middle of the week. The latest official forecast track is close to the TVCN consensus model while the intensity forecast is supported by global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 18.8N 163.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 18.6N 164.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 18.8N 166.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/1200Z 19.5N 166.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0000Z 21.2N 167.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0000Z 25.9N 170.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/0000Z 30.9N 174.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/0000Z 34.3N 179.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Burke NNNN
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