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Hurricane John Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018
900 AM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018

The satellite presentation of John has degraded over the past 12
hours or so, with the eye no longer present in conventional
satellite data.  The CDO has also become considerably less
symmetric than noted yesterday.  Satellite intensity estimates
range from 65 to 77 kt, and the initial intensity has been
lowered to 75 kt for this advisory.  John will be moving over
cooler waters within the next 6-12 hours and into a more stable
atmosphere, which should cause gradual weakening through tonight.
By Thursday, John will be moving over much colder SSTs and a more
rapid rate of filling is expected by that time.  John is predicted
to become a remnant low in 2 to 3 days as it reaches SSTs of around
21C.

The hurricane is moving northwestward or 320/10 kt. John should
continue moving northwestward while it remains a vertically deep
cyclone, but once it weakens and becomes a more shallow system it
is expected to turn west-northwestward in the low-level trade
wind flow. The dynamical model guidance remains in excellent
agreement and little change was required to the previous NHC
track forecast.

Although the center of John is forecast to remain well offshore of
the Baja California Peninsula, a surge of moisture around John's
outer circulation is expected to bring some locally heavy rainfall
to portions of Baja California Sur during the next couple of days.
Therefore, interests in the southern portion of the Baja California
Peninsula should monitor the progress of John.

John is also producing large swells that are already affecting
portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula.
These swells are predicted to spread northward along the west coast
of the peninsula today and reach portions of the coast of southern
California by late Thursday.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 20.7N 112.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 22.0N 113.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 23.5N 115.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 24.9N 118.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 25.9N 120.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 26.9N 123.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1200Z 27.0N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1200Z 27.5N 126.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

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