ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane John Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018 The satellite presentation of John has degraded over the past 12 hours or so, with the eye no longer present in conventional satellite data. The CDO has also become considerably less symmetric than noted yesterday. Satellite intensity estimates range from 65 to 77 kt, and the initial intensity has been lowered to 75 kt for this advisory. John will be moving over cooler waters within the next 6-12 hours and into a more stable atmosphere, which should cause gradual weakening through tonight. By Thursday, John will be moving over much colder SSTs and a more rapid rate of filling is expected by that time. John is predicted to become a remnant low in 2 to 3 days as it reaches SSTs of around 21C. The hurricane is moving northwestward or 320/10 kt. John should continue moving northwestward while it remains a vertically deep cyclone, but once it weakens and becomes a more shallow system it is expected to turn west-northwestward in the low-level trade wind flow. The dynamical model guidance remains in excellent agreement and little change was required to the previous NHC track forecast. Although the center of John is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja California Peninsula, a surge of moisture around John's outer circulation is expected to bring some locally heavy rainfall to portions of Baja California Sur during the next couple of days. Therefore, interests in the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula should monitor the progress of John. John is also producing large swells that are already affecting portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula. These swells are predicted to spread northward along the west coast of the peninsula today and reach portions of the coast of southern California by late Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 20.7N 112.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 22.0N 113.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 23.5N 115.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 24.9N 118.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 25.9N 120.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 26.9N 123.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z 27.0N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z 27.5N 126.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2018 12:10:43 UTC